DOE/EE-1228
R&D Plan
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DOE SSL Program, "R&D Plan," prepared by Bardsley Consulting, SB Consulting, SSLS, Inc., LED Lighting Advisors, and Navigant Consulting, Inc., May 2015.
Authors
Norman Bardsley Stephen Bland Monica Hansen Lisa Pattison Morgan Pattison Kelsey Stober Mary Yamada
Bardsley Consulting SB Consulting
LED Lighting Advisors SSLS, Inc. SSLS, Inc.
Navigant Consulting, Inc. Navigant Consulting, Inc.
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Executive Summary
The solid-state lighting (SSL) revolution signals a profound shift in how we will use and consider lighting and represents a huge opportunity to generate significant energy savings. The energy being used for lighting represents a significant portion of global energy use. Rising electricity prices, mounting concerns about climate change, and desire for energy independence are causing the global lighting market to shift toward more energy-efficient light sources.
In most regions of the world, even with government policy support, a small fraction, less than 10%, of existing lighting installations use SSL products. For example, Strategies Unlimited estimates that in 2014, light-emitting diode (LED)-based lamps comprised just 5% of unit sales and achieved 3% penetration of the installed base [1]. Nevertheless, they forecast dramatic growth in this market such that by 2020 LED-based lamps would comprise 42% of unit sales and represent 33% of the installed base. Other forecasts also anticipate extraordinary growth over the next 5 to 10 years. By any measure these are dramatic growth projections and present significant challenges for the industry. These challenges include further efficiency improvement, continued price reduction, manufacturing scale-up, and the integration of new value and features that can accelerate adoption and provide further energy savings. Addressing these challenges also offers the U.S. the opportunity to secure a dominant role in the technology and manufacturing of these products.
In the U.S., LED lighting is forecasted to account for the majority of installations by 2030, representing 88% of the lumen-hours being generated by general illumination [2]. The high efficacy of SSL sources is a critical factor in the drive for higher adoption. LED lighting is already as efficient, or more efficient, than most incumbent technologies, but there is plenty more to come. Using fairly conservative projections for performance improvements, the Department of Energy (DOE) has determined that by 2030, LED technology can potentially save 261 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually, a 40% reduction of the site electricity consumption forecasted
for a counter-factual “no-LED”
scenario. Assuming the more
aggressive projections, outlined in
this report, can be realized through
continuing investment in Research
and Development (R&D), the total
annual savings would increase to 395
TWh by 2030, a 60% reduction of the
site electricity consumption [2]. This
electricity savings corresponds to
about 4.5 quads of primary source
energy, which is nearly twice the
projected electricity generation of
wind power and twenty times that of
solar power in 2030. At an average
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commercial price of $0.10/kilowatt-hour, this would correspond to an annual dollar savings of about $40 billion [2]. However, in order to reach the performance levels assumed in this analysis, substantial improvements to efficacy and pricing are necessary. This underscores the importance of SSL and SSL R&D in any discussion of energy policy, due to its unprecedented opportunity to reduce energy
consumption, thereby improving domestic energy security, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The DOE has set some tough targets and fashioned its program to remove technology barriers and accelerate adoption. DOE support is essential to achieving the 200 lumens per watt (lm/W) luminaire efficacy program goal by 2020, reducing SSL manufacturing costs, and realizing huge energy savings. To achieve these goals and maintain the pace of development of the underlying LED and organic light-emitting diode (OLED) device technologies, the DOE advocates continuous focus on R&D. It is already apparent that improvements in LED package efficacy are becoming harder to achieve, and R&D is
required to address fundamental technological barriers such as current efficiency droop and the need to develop new high efficiency, narrow line-width down-converter materials.
Still, SSL offers so much more than just improved efficacy. It represents a huge opportunity to improve the performance and value of lighting through enhanced controllability, new functionality, and novel form factors. SSL sources are inherently dimmable and instantaneously controllable; they can be readily integrated with sensor and control systems, thus enabling further energy savings through the use of occupancy sensing, daylight harvesting, and local control of light levels. SSL is at the heart of recent innovation in the lighting industry with respect to smart, connected, intelligent, and adaptive lighting. New functionality within the lighting system can create added value by providing optimal lighting for the occupants and the tasks being performed through real-time controls, programmed sensor-driven
responses, or learning algorithms. The high speed modulation capability of semiconductor light sources has introduced new opportunities in the area of visible light communications, such as Li-Fi and indoor positioning capabilities. SSL offers the prospect of full color control over the light spectrum and will enable precise control over the delivery of light to reduce glare, reduce stray light, and optimize useful light. Control over the light spectrum is creating new opportunities in areas as diverse as horticulture and human health.
Understandably, most LED lighting technology to date has been engineered to address the near term market opportunities in the form of replacement lamps and retrofit luminaires. With an estimated 40 billion sockets in the world, these form factors clearly represent an enormous market and energy savings opportunity, but moving beyond these form factors will expand the concept of lighting and
create entirely new lighting paradigms. Similarly, OLEDs offer a whole new approach to lighting based on their low illuminance, thin profile, and potential for surface shaping.
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Inevitably, the discussion of SSL often focuses on first cost as one of the main barriers to adoption. Excellent progress has been made over the past year for both LED and OLED technologies. LED package prices are down to $1/klm and OLED panels are down to $200/klm. The LED-based dimmable A19 60W-equivalent replacement lamp has dropped below $10 ($11/klm), still more expensive than conventional incandescent and compact fluorescent (CFL) lamps, but rebates and incentives can further reduce price to below $5. Market factors heavily influence prices, and the A19 replacement lamp remains the most competitive product
sector while other products have shown less dramatic price reductions. It is expected that SSL products will remain more expensive than conventional lighting on a first-cost basis for some time, but higher operating efficiency and longer operating lifetime (reduced maintenance and replacement costs) ensure that LED lighting is already highly competitive on a total cost of ownership (TCO) basis, leading to
payback periods of less than one year in certain high usage applications. Additionally, with the ability to provide new value added funcitonality, price parity is not a strict requirement.
The DOE SSL Program has developed a comprehensive R&D strategy to support advancements in SSL technology and
maximize energy savings. This document, the DOE SSL R&D Plan, is a consolidation of the DOE SSL Multi-Year Program Plan (MYPP) and the DOE SSL Manufacturing R&D Roadmap. The R&D Plan is developed in conjunction with community experts through inputs received at roundtable meetings held in October 2014 and at the DOE SSL R&D Workshop, held in January 2015 in San Francisco, California. The plan reflects the consensus view of the community on key barriers, technology challenges to address
and where R&D efforts are required over the next 3 to 5 years. The discussions covered R&D needs for LED and OLED technologies, ranging from core technology research and product development, through manufacturing R&D.
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As the technology matures and barriers are gradually addressed, the relative emphasis between core technology research, product development and manufacturing R&D changes, requiring the balance between these factors to be re-assessed on a regular basis. In the early stages of technology
development, the focus is, generally, on core technology research which then shifts to product
development as the technology matures and practical products become feasible. Next, a technology transfer phase occurs as the transition is made to full scale manufacturing, often through an initial pilot production phase. R&D continues to be required across all stages of the technology development from core to manufacturing, but the relative urgency will vary. In addition, ongoing research on the status of commercial products is necessary to identify and head off product disappointments.
Over the past five years, the manufacturing activity for LEDs has matured, and the R&D emphasis has started to shift back toward breaking down technology barriers than can provide step function
improvements in cost and performance. These types of barriers require more fundamental technological development, requiring a shift back toward core and product development activities.
For OLEDs, the balance between these phases is more evenly distributed. One of the most critical issues relates to optimizing technology transfer into full scale manufacturing and therefore part of the focus remains on manufacturing R&D. Another part of the focus remains on certain technologies which are not yet completely developed but will be critical to achieving ultimate performance and cost goals. Therefore, the development and optimization of these critical technologies is handled in parallel with the establishment of an effective and efficient manufacturing capability.
The key challenges identified during the Roundtable and Workshop discussions are as follows:
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During the Roundtable and Workshop, there were other R&D initiatives highlighted as priorities that do not fit within the typical R&D funding opportunity announcement (FOA) framework. These may require longer term R&D, government led industry group cooperation, or may be outside of the FOA defined funding levels.
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Table of Contents
1.0
2.0 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 2 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 13 Benefits of Solid-State Lighting ........................................................................................................ 14
2.1 Source Efficacy ............................................................................................................................... 14
2.2 Light Utilization .............................................................................................................................. 16
2.3 Cost of Ownership.......................................................................................................................... 19
2.4 Improved Lighting Performance and Design ................................................................................. 20
2.5 New Functionality in Lighting ........................................................................................................ 21
2.5.1 Lighting Controls .................................................................................................................... 22
2.5.2 Communications and Interoperability ................................................................................... 23
2.5.3 Visible Light Communication ................................................................................................. 26
2.5.4 Spectral Control and Tuning ................................................................................................... 28
2.5.5 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 31
2.6 Improved Environmental Sustainability ......................................................................................... 31
3.0 Barriers to Adoption ......................................................................................................................... 34
3.1 First Cost ........................................................................................................................................ 34
3.2 Reliability........................................................................................................................................ 34
3.3 Color Stability ................................................................................................................................. 35
3.4 Compatibility .................................................................................................................................. 36
4.0 Market Impact of Solid-State Lighting .............................................................................................. 37
4.1 Global Lighting Market: Status and Potential ................................................................................ 37
4.1.1 United States .......................................................................................................................... 38
4.1.2 Asia ......................................................................................................................................... 43
4.1.3 Europe .................................................................................................................................... 43
4.1.4 Off-grid Communities in the Developing World .................................................................... 44
4.2 Economic Impact ............................................................................................................................ 45
5.0 LED Technology Status ..................................................................................................................... 48
5.1 Technology Status .......................................................................................................................... 48
5.1.1 LED Package Efficacy .............................................................................................................. 48
5.1.2 Future Prospects .................................................................................................................... 54
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5.1.3 LED Luminaire Efficacy ........................................................................................................... 58
5.2 Manufacturing Status .................................................................................................................... 61
5.2.1 Supply Chain Outline .............................................................................................................. 61
5.2.2 LED Package Manufacturing .................................................................................................. 62
5.2.3 LED Luminaire Manufacturing................................................................................................ 69
5.2.4 Reliability and Color Shift ....................................................................................................... 73
5.2.5 Commercial Considerations ................................................................................................... 78
6.0 OLED Technology Status ................................................................................................................... 83
6.1 Technology Status .......................................................................................................................... 83
6.1.1 OLED Panel Efficacy ................................................................................................................ 83
6.1.2 Panel Lifetime ........................................................................................................................ 90
6.1.3 Panel Color Quality................................................................................................................. 91
6.1.4 Form Factor ............................................................................................................................ 92
6.1.5 OLED Luminaire ...................................................................................................................... 94
6.1.6 OLED Product Availability ....................................................................................................... 96
6.2 OLED Manufacturing Status ......................................................................................................... 100
6.2.1 Supply Chain Outline ............................................................................................................ 101
6.2.2 OLED Panel Manufacturing .................................................................................................. 102
6.2.3 OLED Luminaire Manufacturing ........................................................................................... 112
6.2.4 OLED Cost Forecasts ............................................................................................................. 113 7.0 R&D Plan ......................................................................................................................................... 116
7.1 Process and Discussion ................................................................................................................ 116
7.2 Measuring Progress ..................................................................................................................... 118
7.2.1 Goals and Projections .......................................................................................................... 118
7.2.2 Program Milestones and Interim Goals ............................................................................... 121
7.3 Key Issues & Challenges ............................................................................................................... 123
7.4 LED Priority Research Areas ......................................................................................................... 124
7.4.1 LED Core Technology Research Tasks .................................................................................. 125
7.4.2 LED Product Development Tasks ......................................................................................... 129
7.5 OLED Priority Research Areas ...................................................................................................... 132
7.5.1 OLED Core Technology Research Tasks................................................................................ 132
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7.5.2 OLED Product Development Tasks ....................................................................................... 133
7.5.3 OLED Manufacturing R&D Tasks .......................................................................................... 135
7.6 Additional Priority R&D Topics .................................................................................................... 136 8.0 Appendices ..................................................................................................................................... 139
8.1 Definitions and Background ......................................................................................................... 139
8.2 List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................................... 142
8.3 SSL Supply Chain – Additional Information .................................................................................. 144
8.3.1 LED ....................................................................................................................................... 144
8.3.2 OLED ..................................................................................................................................... 148
8.4 DOE Program Status ..................................................................................................................... 152
8.4.1 Funding Levels ...................................................................................................................... 152
8.4.2 Current SSL Portfolio ............................................................................................................ 152
8.4.3 Patents ................................................................................................................................. 158 9.0
References ...................................................................................................................................... 159
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Figure 2.1 Comparison of LED and Incumbent Light Source Efficacies ....................................................... 16
Figure 2.2 Los Angeles, CA Citywide Streetlight Retrofit (2008-2012) ....................................................... 17
Figure 2.3 Cree Edge Area Square, Edgewater Marketplace, Edgewater, CO. ........................................... 18
Figure 2.4 Combination of Ambient, Surround and Task Lighting for Efficient Office Lighting .................. 18
Figure 2.5 Dimmable LED Cost Savings Compared with Competing Dimmable A19 Technologies ............ 20
Figure 2.6 Image of Bay Bridge with Custom Luminaires Showing Minimal Light Pollution on Bay. ......... 21
Figure 2.7 Lighting as Part of an Integrated Control System ...................................................................... 22
Figure 2.8 Lights, Sensors, Meters, Gateways, and Management Systems Working Together ................. 24 Figure 2.9 Residential Smart Lighting Products: Cree Connected & GE Link Bulbs with Wink Hub & App. 26
Figure 2.10 Cisco Forecasts 24.3 Exabytes per Month of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019 ............................. 27
Figure 2.11 VLC + BLE – Turn Lightings into Indoor Location Beacons ....................................................... 27
Figure 2.12 Effect of Light on Plant Growth ................................................................................................ 29
Figure 2.13 How Light Affects a Biological Systems .................................................................................... 29 Figure 2.14 Daytime Activation by Light (left) and Less Circadian Light Effects in the Evening and Night
(right) .......................................................................................................................................................... 30
Figure 2.15 Energy Consumption Comparison from DOE LCA Study .......................................................... 32
Figure 2.16 Lamps without Aluminum Heat Sinks: (a) the Philips SlimStyle and (b)Cree 4-flow ............... 33
Figure 4.1 Evolution of the Global Installed Lamp Base by Lighting Technology ....................................... 38
Figure 4.2 U.S. Lighting Service Forecast, 2013 to 2030 ............................................................................. 39
Figure 4.3 Forecasted U.S. Energy Savings if DOE SSL Program Goals are Realized ................................... 41 Figure 4.4 Projected U.S. Electricity Savings from SSL in 2030 Compared to Wind Power Generation,
Solar Power Generation, or U.S. Household Annual Electricity Consumption ........................................... 42
Figure 4.5 Impact of Lighting on the Global Economy in 2014 ................................................................... 45 Figure 5.1 LED Package Efficacy Data for Commercial Packages Measured at 25oC & 35 A/cm2 current
Density ........................................................................................................................................................ 49 Figure 5.2 Typical Simulated Optical Spectra for Each Approach Compared to Black-Body Curve (3000K, 85 CRI, R9>0) ................................................................................................................................................ 50
Figure 5.3 Examples of Thermal and Current Efficiency Droop Behavior ................................................... 55
Figure 5.4 LED Luminaire Efficiency Factors ............................................................................................... 59
Figure 5.5 LED-Based SSL Manufacturing Supply Chain .............................................................................. 62
Figure 5.6 Integration Path for LED Components ....................................................................................... 63
Figure 5.7 Examples of High-power, Mid-power, and Chip-on-board Packages ........................................ 64 Figure 5.8 (a) Schematic Representation of a CSP Manufacturing Approach and (b) Recent Examples of
Commercial CSPs. ........................................................................................................................................ 65
Figure 5.9 Typical Cost Breakdowns for High-Power and Mid-Power LED Packages ................................. 67
Figure 5.10 Projected High Power LED Package Cost Reduction ................................................................ 68
Figure 5.11 Comparison of Cost Breakdown for Different Lighting Applications ....................................... 70
Figure 5.12 Cost Breakdown Projection for a Typical A19 Replacement Lamp .......................................... 71 Figure 5.13 LED Package Schematics Showing (a) Sidewall Discoloration and (b) Phosphor Delamination.
.................................................................................................................................................................... 74 Figure 5.14 Lumen Degradation Performance of Mid-Power Packages (PPA and EMC Plastic Resins) and
High Power Packages (Ceramic Substrates). ............................................................................................... 75
Figure 5.15 Color Shift of LED Package as a Function of Temperature ....................................................... 76
Figure 5.16 The Most Commonly Observed Failures from LSRC Member Survey...................................... 77
Figure 5.17 Price-Efficacy Trade-off for LED Packages at 1 W/mm2 (equiv. 35 A/cm2) and 25°C ............... 79
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Figure 5.18 A19 Replacement Lamp Price Projection (60W Equivalent; Dimmable) ................................. 81
Figure 6.1 Spectra of Commercial and Laboratory OLED Panels ................................................................ 84
Figure 6.2 Luminance vs Voltage for a 2-stage Panel (left) and 3-stage Panel (right) from LG Chem ........ 85
Figure 6.3 Dependence of Luminous Flux and Drive Voltage on Current ................................................... 86
Figure 6.4 OLED Panel Loss Channels and Efficiencies ............................................................................... 90
Figure 6.5 Variation of Color Point on CIE1976 (u’,v’) Diagram with Drive Current and Emission Angle... 92
Figure 6.6 “Habataki” – Flexible Light-Weight OLED Lights ........................................................................ 93
Figure 6.7 Acuity Nomi Curve Wall Sconce using LG Chem Bendable Panels............................................. 94 Figure 6.8 User customizable lighting using (a) LG Chem magnetic connector rail and (b) Winona Modelo
.................................................................................................................................................................... 96
Figure 6.9 Acuity Brands’ Trilia (left) and First-O-Lite (right) Luminaires ................................................... 97
Figure 6.10 SNU Library with 110 OLED Panels Installed in Desk Lamps .................................................... 98
Figure 6.11 OLED Products Available at Home Depot. ............................................................................... 98
Figure 6.12 Acuity Brands Marker Light Using Amber Panels from OLEDWorks ........................................ 99
Figure 6.13 OLED Rear Lights on (a) Audi and (b) BMW Concept Cars ....................................................... 99 Figure 6.14 OLED-Based SSL Manufacturing Supply Chain ....................................................................... 102 Figure 6.15 OLED Panel Production Line in Aachen Germany .................................................................. 103 Figure 6.16 R2R OLED Deposition Line in Dresden ................................................................................... 104 Figure 6.17 R2R Pilot Line for Organic Electronics at the Holst Centre in Eindhoven .............................. 105 Figure 6.18 Luminance Uniformity as a Function of Anode Sheet Resistance ......................................... 107 Figure 6.19 Optical Transmission vs Sheet Resistance for Ag Nanowire Coatings ................................... 107 Figure 6.20 Hybrid Light Extraction Layer with Graded Index .................................................................. 110 Figure 6.21 Multi-layer Barrier Coating to Prevent Ingress of Moisture and Oxygen .............................. 111 Figure 6.22 Variation of OLED Drive Voltage with Ambient Temperature During Warm-Up Phase ........ 112 Figure 7.1 SSL Program Input Strategy ..................................................................................................... 117 Figure 7.2 LED Package Efficacy Projections for Commercial Products .................................................... 119 Figure 7.3 White-Light OLED Panel Efficacy Projections ........................................................................... 120 Figure 8.1 Components of an LED Lamp ................................................................................................... 139 Figure 8.2 Components of an OLED Panel ................................................................................................ 140 Figure 8.3 Funding Allocations for SSL, FY 2003 to 2015 .......................................................................... 152 Figure 8.4 DOE SSL Total Portfolio Summary, March 2015 ...................................................................... 153 Figure 8.5 Funding of SSL R&D Project Portfolio by Funder, March 2015 ................................................ 153 Figure 8.6 DOE SSL Total Portfolio Summary by Recipient Group, March 2015 ...................................... 154
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Table 2.1 Typical 2014 Price and Performance of SSL Compared to Other Lighting Technologies ............ 15
Table 4.1 Global Market Share of LED Lighting Measured as a Percent of Total Lighting Revenue ........... 38
Table 4.2 Forecasted U.S. LED Market Share of Lighting Shipments (lumen-hour) [2] ..
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